College Football Playoff projections: Is TCU already a lock? Can Alabama sneak in?

June 18, 2024

Read The Athletic’s latest College Football Playoff projections.

The end of the college football regular season is here and with only the conference championship weekend remaining, the College Football Playoff picture is almost all but done as five teams should remain but a sixth still has an outside shot.

Michigan’s rout of Ohio State in Columbus on Saturday has all but guaranteed a second straight appearance for Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines as they’re 12-0 and can likely afford a loss in the Big Ten Championship Game against Purdue and still find a slot in the top 4. Georgia seems to be in the same boat. The defending national champions have once again made it through the regular season unscathed and, just like last year, will very likely receive a bid if they were to lose to LSU in the SEC Championship Game.

After those two, though, things get a little murky.

TCU is also 12-0, but the Horned Frogs haven’t been in the same ballpark as the other undefeated teams in the committee’s eyes up until this point. With all the other teams falling out of the race over the past few weeks, is TCU firmly in the Playoff like Georgia and Michigan seem to be? I tend to think the Horned Frogs are, but with USC and Ohio State as the other two schools, a blow out loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game could at least make the committee think about it.

I think it’s pretty safe to say that if USC avenges its loss to Utah and completes the season as a 12-1 Pac-12 champion, then the Trojans’ ticket to the Playoff will be punched. A loss, though, would see their hopes extinguished. It’s fairly simple for Trojan fans this weekend. Win on Friday night and you’re in the Playoff. Lose and you’re not.

And then there is Ohio State. Ohio State fans should be rooting for two things and maybe only one of them is realistic. First and foremost, you’re rooting for a USC loss. This would certainly knock out the Trojans and the Buckeyes have the best case to slide into the Playoff. If USC wins, though, not all hope is lost. There is the slightest of chances that TCU gets routed by Kansas State and the loss boots TCU out of the Playoff. It’s not likely, but hearing the committee talk about “game control” or something on Sunday wouldn’t be all that shocking.

Let’s talk about that sixth team with an outside shot. This will be confirmed by tonight’s rankings, but there is some buzz that Alabama could slide in front of Ohio State and then it would be the team that is rooting for a USC loss. I don’t believe that should be the case as the Crimson Tide have dropped two games to Ohio State’s one while the schedules are comparable and one could make the argument that Ohio State’s has been slightly tougher. Throw in the fact that Alabama has lost to two teams that are not in the Playoff conversation while Ohio State lost to one of the two teams that has all but secured a spot in the top 4 and the argument isn’t much of an argument.

My Playoff algorithm doesn’t give Nick Saban’s team a shot, but committee’s can value different things at any given time in any given season. Let the record show, though, that based on past committee rankings, Ohio State should be ranked ahead of Alabama tonight.

How the rankings work: Using the committee’s past rankings, I’ve looked at various metrics that have been valued in the past and after some guess and check, I found a formula that tested well compared to the actual rankings. Now, there are some caveats. The committee changes from year to year and I have no way of knowing if the changes in personnel will change what is being valued. But I’m pretty confident the changes aren’t going to be drastic and that the formula I’ve created is likely to be pretty accurate regardless. After all, it’s a sport where you rank higher if you win games and you’ll drop if you lose.

Projected College Football Playoff rankings

There are two things that stick out to me in my algorithm’s rankings this week. First, Ohio State gets the nod over USC by the slightest of margins. Don’t panic! USC easily moves past Ohio State with a win over Utah on Friday night. The second is that Tennessee is ahead of Alabama, again. The head-to-head victory gives the edge to Tennessee here as both teams have similar resumes. Maybe the committee is docking Tennessee for Hendon Hooker’s injury, but based on how these teams have performed and how past committee’s have ranked teams, Tennessee should get the nod here.

College Football Playoff chances after Week 13

team	title	playoff
	56.2%	100.0%
	22.8%	100.0%
	8.7%	51.7%
	6.8%	100.0%
	5.6%	48.3%

What happens if…?

Consider the following scenario:

Georgia 13-0 SEC Champion
Michigan 13-0 Big Ten Champion
USC 12-1 Pac-12 Champion
Ohio State 11-1
TCU 12-1, lose to Kansas State 59-0

In a throwback to the 2014 College Football Playoff, let’s assume TCU loses 59-0. Do they get in over Ohio State? Maybe we don’t need to make the score that dramatic but if TCU does lose by 17 or more to Kansas State this weekend, who are you putting in that fourth spot? My playoff algorithm has a hard time adjusting for significant margins, but it thinks that 12-1 TCU would have a more impressive resume than 11-1 Ohio State.

Subjectively, I kind of agree. I’m all for having the best teams in the playoffs and Ohio State would certainly be favored on a neutral field against TCU, but with the Buckeyes getting smoked at home against Michigan, I can’t penalize TCU for having to play an extra game. Did TCU play anyone as good as Michigan all season long? No. But at the end of the day, the games matter and I’m not in favor of penalizing TCU for losing an extra game when Ohio State didn’t get to play one.

(Photo of Emari Demercado: Raymond Carlin III / USA Today)

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